06.14.09

Why Didn’t Everyone Do This?

Posted in Uncategorized at 11:20 pm by Administrator

Sorry about my absence for the last week. I promise to be more regular in the future.

Here is a hand that left me a bit dumbfounded, not the hand itself, but the results at other tables. I picked up the following hand (sorry I don’t have all the spot cards, I don’t have my hand record with me):

Not vul. v. Vul.
S: x
H: AT9x
D: AKQJTx
C: Kx

A very nice hand.

Partner opens 4C!!! Normally, I hate it when partner preempts and I have a good hand, but sometimes it makes placing the contract much easier, as it does in this case. After my partner’s preempt, my RHO overcalls 4S.

Decision time. There are 3 choices – bid double, bid 5C or bid 6C (pass is not a rational option holding my hand). Let’s examine the possibilities. If I double, how many tricks will I probably take. I should get 1 heart trick, maybe even 2, 2-3 diamond tricks, and if we are very lucky, 1 club trick. Best case scenario is we get 6 tricks for 800, worst case is probably 3 tricks, for their making the contract.

So how many tricks can we take in clubs. Well, first, I have to examine my partner’s sanity. What kind of hand would she open 4C. At this vulnerability, partner should have an 8-card suit with 7 tricks in her hand (maybe even 8). In theory, partner could have 8 clubs to the Q and a side ace, but that is not likely, since RHO bid 4S vulnerable. RHO probably has the AKxxxxx of spades or better. Therefore, in order for partner to have her bid, she should have the ATxxxxxx or better in clubs and probably very little on the side. Assuming this, we should have 8 club tricks, at least 5 diamond tricks and the A of hearts, for 14 tricks. How many losers do we have? Well, we have one spade loser off the top – however, once we lose the spade, it is unlikely we have any more losers. If partner’s trumps are AT9xxxxx, she might have a problem. If her clubs are AQxxxxxx and the clubs are 2-1, the contract should be cold and if her clubs are AQJxxxxx, the contract is cold unless LHO is able to trump an initial diamond lead or diamond switch at trick 2 after the A of spades is cashed (not a likely scenario). When you combine the odds related to trump breaks, the diamond suit split, and the ability to get to declarer’s hand, the odds of making 6C are in excess of 70% if the defense leads a spade and continues a spade, and much higher on any other line of defense.

Therefore, the bid should be 6C, for plus 920 or 940, which is what I bid. The opening lead was the K of hearts, at which point partner pulled trump and scored 8 clubs, 6 diamonds and 1 heart, i.e., more tricks than were available – making 7 for 940.

So did anyone else score 920 or 940? No!!? One pair was in 7C doubled, down 1. Several people doubled 4S and 5S for 500 or 800, and a number were in 5C making 7.

What would you have done?

By the way, partner had the AQJTxxxx of clubs and nothing else (without the hand record, I cannot recall the distribution of the other 3 suits, but it is a clear 4C opening at any vulnerability in my opinion.

It is important to realize that some players will open at the 4-level at this vulnerability with very bad hands, perhaps as bad as QJTxxxxx and nothing else, or even a worse suit with one side card. That is usually asking for trouble because partner never knows what to do. Such preempts often preempt partner more than the opponents.

Comments anyone?

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